Key Notes
- WGC and BCG project a $160–170 billion digital gold market by 2031, up from an estimated $45–55 billion today.
- The $700 billion figure describes potential additional demand with no fixed deadline, rather than the five-year market forecast.
- Trust, access, utility and cost will determine how much interest becomes investment, with gold-price changes and major failures excluded from the scenarios.
The digital gold market could grow to $160–170 billion by 2031, according to the World Gold Council and Boston Consulting Group, as banks and financial platforms make gold-backed investments easier to buy and use.
Their October 19 announcement puts the market at $45–55 billion today and projects approximately 27% annual growth in its base case. The research also identifies up to $700 billion in potential additional demand if the obstacles holding investors back were removed.
That larger number has no target date. It estimates demand constrained by current market conditions, rather than predicting a $700 billion market by 2031. The five-year forecast instead depends on how quickly interest becomes actual investment.
Three Scenarios Frame the 2031 Outlook
The report’s scenarios show a wide range of possible outcomes:
- Base case: $160–170 billion by 2031, with partial progress on consumer confidence, distribution and product competitiveness.
- Bull case: $270–280 billion, assuming adoption barriers fall faster and more broadly.
- Bear case: $70–80 billion, with little meaningful improvement in those barriers and growth driven mainly by a larger digitally enabled investor base and rising wealth.
The difference matters for financial firms assessing the opportunity. A growing pool of potential customers can support expansion, but the higher outcomes require changes in how products are distributed, regulated and operated. They are conditional estimates rather than a single promised trajectory.
Digital Gold Means Exposure to Physical Metal
The study covers vaulted digital gold and tokenized gold. In this context, the term describes products connected to the metal, rather than Bitcoin’s frequently used “digital gold” label.
WGC’s earlier glossary explains the distinction. Vaulted gold is physical metal stored for customers by a professional custodian. Tokenized gold uses blockchain or comparable token infrastructure to manage issuance, transfers and redemption, with ownership and redemption rights varying by structure.
A digital record therefore does not, by itself, establish that every product gives its holder the same claim on specific bars. The custody arrangement, contractual rights and redemption process remain part of what an investor is buying.
The category is also different from a forecast about the relative returns of gold and Bitcoin. We reported separately on J.P. Morgan’s long-term return assumptions for those assets. This new study concerns the size and adoption of gold products, rather than their expected investment performance.
Trust and Distribution Remain the Main Obstacles
The researchers identify four barriers: trust, access, utility and cost. Their survey findings point to physical backing and consumer safeguards as important conditions for wider ownership.
Some 33% of respondents said better evidence and transparency around gold backing would encourage adoption, while 35% cited clearer regulation and consumer protections. Those responses express preferences; they do not represent committed subscriptions.
Familiar distribution channels also appear to make a difference. The report associates digital gold’s availability through banking apps, payment platforms and super-apps in markets including China, India and Indonesia with ownership rates up to seven times those in less developed markets.
That finding gives banks a potential role beyond custody. Offering an accessible product within an existing account could reach customers unwilling to open a separate specialist account or learn an unfamiliar trading system. Distribution, however, still needs to be supported by credible backing and understandable charges.
Infrastructure Has to Connect the Token and the Gold
WGC outlined a proposed shared operating model in its March infrastructure paper. Gold as a Service is intended to connect functions including sourcing, vaulting, custody, compliance and redemption, helping issuers avoid rebuilding each component independently.
The initiative is infrastructure in development, rather than a completed consumer product. Its commercial test is whether common services can reduce complexity while leaving customers with clear claims on the underlying asset.
Similar questions arise elsewhere in tokenization. As we previously reported, Nasdaq’s investment case for tokenized collateral centers on moving assets more efficiently between systems. For gold, that digital movement also has to remain connected to metal held in a vault.
Adding lending or payment functions would introduce further obligations. A gold-backed product used as collateral still needs enforceable contracts, while lending it involves an additional counterparty. Easier transfers do not eliminate those requirements.
The Model Excludes Major Shocks and Gold-Price Changes
The study’s methodology combines a Toluna survey of more than 12,000 people across 12 markets, interviews with 20 industry experts and a review of over 70 products. Its growth model extends across 96 countries representing 98% of global investable wealth.
Current market estimates include both disclosed assets under custody and estimates for smaller providers. Future scenarios phase in changes in participation and allocations; the $700 billion calculation instead assumes barriers disappear immediately at today’s population and wealth levels.
The scenarios exclude material changes in the gold price and major failures such as a serious hack or custody collapse. Those limits leave a clear distinction between an addressable business opportunity and a realized market: providers must still earn trust, bring products into familiar channels and convert stated interest into sustained ownership.
