Key Notes
- Brent futures traded above $102 a barrel on Monday as Aramco warned that the usable oil supply buffer was shrinking.
- Amin Nasser estimated that almost 3 billion barrels of supply had been lost and more than 1 billion drawn from inventories.
- Rebuilding depleted stockpiles could take up to two years after Hormuz fully reopens while producers continue meeting demand.
Brent crude traded above $102 a barrel on Monday as Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL: 2222) Chief Executive Amin Nasser warned that depleted oil stockpiles could take up to two years to rebuild even after the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens.
Speaking at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London on October 5, Nasser described the global supply buffer as “scarily thin,” Bloomberg reported. His warning shifts attention from the immediate reopening of export routes to the longer task of replacing barrels already consumed from storage.
Brent futures were quoted at $102.48 a barrel, up 23 cents, or 0.22%, in Yahoo Finance’s delayed data at 10:08 UTC. The contract had traded between $100.66 and $103.55 during the session. Those are intraday observations for October 5, rather than a closing price or an estimate of where oil will settle.
Three Billion Barrels of Supply Lost
Nasser put the cumulative supply loss since the conflict began at almost 3 billion barrels. More than 1 billion barrels have been released from inventories, mostly commercial holdings, according to Reuters’ account of his remarks. He said roughly 6 billion barrels remained in storage but much of that oil was not practically available.
These figures describe different parts of the disruption. Lost supply measures barrels that did not reach the market, while an inventory draw measures stored oil used to help cover the shortfall. Adding the two together would overstate the total loss. Nasser’s assessment also concerns oil inventories available to the market, rather than the geological reserves that producers have yet to extract.
The distinction between total stocks and usable stocks matters for prices. A large headline inventory figure can coexist with a limited cushion if barrels cannot quickly reach the buyers who need them. Commercial inventories normally help bridge timing gaps between production, shipping and consumption; repeated withdrawals reduce that flexibility when another disruption occurs.
Official data illustrate the scale of the earlier shipping shock. The Energy Information Administration’s Hormuz estimates put oil flows through the strait at 4.9 million barrels a day in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 21.6 million in the final quarter of 2025. Those quarterly figures provide historical context and do not measure current October traffic.
The EIA cautions that vessel-tracking signals have been less reliable since the conflict began in late February, requiring additional analysis and revisions. That uncertainty makes it especially important to distinguish observed shipping flows from estimates of how much supply the market has lost over several months.
Aramco’s Pipeline Helps, but Stocks Need a Surplus
Aramco has restored its East-West pipeline to about 80% of capacity following a halt caused by an attack in September, Bloomberg reported. The route allows Saudi oil to reach the Red Sea, reducing reliance on a passage through Hormuz. Aramco is also looking at alternative export routes and additional international storage.
The pipeline is a substantial outlet. In a separate pipeline assessment, the EIA described Saudi Arabia’s East-West route as having capacity of 7 million barrels a day, with about 5 million available for exports after domestic requirements. That capacity figure is background information, not a measurement of the pipeline’s current throughput.
Restoring exports and replenishing stocks require different balances. Resumed shipments can satisfy current consumption without leaving enough extra oil to refill storage quickly. Nasser’s two-year estimate assumes the market must rebuild its buffer while continuing to meet demand after Hormuz fully reopens; it does not mean all interrupted supply will remain unavailable for two more years.
Why Brent Above $102 Matters Beyond Oil
MarketSpeaker previously covered Brent’s return to $100 oil during the September escalation. Monday’s warning adds an inventory dimension to that price story: improved tanker access could ease immediate supply pressure while leaving the market vulnerable to further interruptions.
For the wider economy, persistent oil costs can feed into transport, manufacturing and household fuel bills. The extent of that pressure depends on refinery capacity, distribution costs and local taxes as well as crude prices. Brent alone therefore cannot show how much consumers or businesses will ultimately pay for gasoline, diesel or aviation fuel.
For investors, the next useful evidence is whether export volumes recover consistently and inventory withdrawals slow. Nasser’s remarks describe a potentially prolonged rebuilding process, but do not establish a future price for Brent. At roughly $102 a barrel, the immediate market question is how quickly returning supplies can cover demand and create a surplus large enough to restore the buffer.
