Key Notes
- Among the 9% of S&P 500 companies that had reported by October 16, 84% beat EPS forecasts and 67% exceeded revenue estimates.
- The early EPS beat rate is above historical averages, while the revenue beat rate and magnitude of earnings surprises lag.
- Thursday, October 22 leads the coming week’s covered reporting lineup, with company announcements confirming individual dates.
The third-quarter US earnings season has opened with more S&P 500 companies beating profit forecasts than usual, while the share exceeding revenue estimates trails historical averages. The split points to a stronger start for earnings per share than for sales surprises.
Among companies that had reported by October 16, 84% exceeded EPS estimates and 67% beat revenue forecasts, according to FactSet (NYSE: FDS). Only 9% of index members had released results, making this an early reading rather than a verdict on the full quarter.
A busier reporting schedule now approaches. Readers can follow upcoming companies through the earnings calendar, with Thursday, October 22 shaping up as the heaviest day in the coming week’s covered lineup.
EPS Beats Outpace the Historical Average
FactSet’s October 16 update puts the 84% EPS beat rate above the five-year average of 78% and the 10-year average of 77%. The 67% revenue beat rate is below the corresponding averages of 70% and 68%.
The size of the upside is less impressive. Aggregate earnings exceeded estimates by 2.6%, compared with five- and 10-year averages of 7.5% and 8%. A high proportion of companies can clear the earnings bar while their combined results exceed forecasts by a relatively small amount.
The historical comparisons also cover completed quarters across the full index. They are not matched samples containing only companies that had reported at this same stage. The early composition of the reporting group therefore matters when comparing the percentages.
An Earnings Beat Is Different From Profit Growth
Recent reports illustrate why results need more than one comparison. Beating an analyst estimate measures performance against the forecast immediately before a release; year-over-year growth measures the change from the same period a year earlier.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) reported a 6% increase in third-quarter net income, yet adjusted EPS and managed revenue fell short of consensus, as we reported. Higher profit did not automatically produce an earnings beat.
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) showed the reverse distinction. Adjusted EPS of $2.59 exceeded the $2.54 estimate but was below the previous year’s $2.80. As we previously reported, the company raised its outlook even as charges pushed reported quarterly profit sharply lower.
Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) delivered both growth and upside to expectations, reporting $2.85 in EPS and $23.85 billion in revenue. We reported that its results benefited from corporate payments, wealth management and trading, while credit provisions and investment spending remained relevant to the outlook.
These examples do not establish the pattern for companies that have yet to report. They show why the earnings beat rate, revenue performance and change in underlying profitability answer different questions.
Thursday Leads the Coming Week’s Reporting Lineup
FactSet expects 79 S&P 500 companies, including five Dow components, to report during the week of October 19–23. That will add substantially to the small group behind the current scorecard.
Thursday, October 22 is the busiest day in TheStreet’s displayed weekly lineup. Its covered-company schedule spans consumer businesses, industrial groups, technology companies and financial firms, broadening the range of operating conditions investors will be able to assess.
Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG) has confirmed an earnings discussion for 8:30 a.m. Eastern on October 22. Its report covers the first quarter of fiscal 2027, illustrating that companies reporting during the autumn season do not all use the same fiscal-quarter label.
Blackstone Inc. (NYSE: BX) has separately scheduled its third-quarter investor call for 9 a.m. Eastern that day. Those company announcements confirm the call dates and times; they do not provide the results in advance.
What to Read Beyond the Headline EPS Number
Company filings help connect the headline figures with the businesses producing them. The SEC’s filing guide explains that management’s discussion covers operating results, liquidity and material changes, while financial statements and notes provide the accounting detail.
For this reporting season, that means reading the basis of the EPS comparison alongside revenue, expenses, cash flow and management’s updated expectations. GAAP results and adjusted measures can differ because of charges or gains, and the reconciliation shows what the company has excluded.
The calendar offers a searchable reference schedule, with entries clearly labeled as estimated. Company investor-relations announcements remain the source for confirmed dates. As more results arrive, the early beat rates will become a broader test of whether profit performance is being supported by sales and sustained operating improvement.
