Asset manager VanEck believes Bitcoin is approaching a cyclical bottom, arguing that the recent correction appears to be part of the cryptocurrency’s normal four-year market cycle rather than the beginning of a structural bear market.
The firm’s investment outlook is based on its proprietary GEO model, which evaluates global liquidity conditions, leverage across cryptocurrency markets, and on-chain activity. According to VanEck, two of the three indicators have already returned to neutral levels, while crypto market leverage is currently sending a constructive signal. Based on those conditions, the firm says it is beginning to consider gradually rebuilding Bitcoin positions.
VanEck Sees a Typical Crypto Cycle
Rather than viewing the recent decline as evidence of weakening long-term fundamentals, VanEck believes the market is following a familiar historical pattern.
The company argues that previous Bitcoin cycles have also experienced significant corrections before entering new expansion phases. While short-term volatility remains elevated, current market conditions do not, in VanEck’s view, suggest a lasting breakdown in the broader crypto market.
Instead, the firm believes improving liquidity and healthier positioning across derivatives markets could create more favorable conditions over time.
AI Spending Could Approach $1 Trillion
Beyond cryptocurrencies, VanEck remains highly optimistic about artificial intelligence.
The firm estimates that spending by the world’s largest technology companies on AI infrastructure could approach $1 trillion over the next year, driven by continued investment in data centers, advanced chips, networking equipment, and power infrastructure.
VanEck believes demand for AI computing capacity remains well above available supply, supporting long-term growth across the sector.
Semiconductor Pullbacks Still Look Attractive
VanEck also highlighted opportunities in semiconductor stocks.
According to the firm’s outlook, historical corrections of 15% to 20% have often created attractive long-term entry points, particularly during periods when the broader economy is not in recession.
Although AI-related chip companies have experienced increased volatility, VanEck argues that long-term demand for advanced semiconductors continues to strengthen as AI adoption expands.
Gold and Energy Remain Long-Term Themes
The firm also maintains a positive outlook on gold, describing the recent price consolidation as a normal correction within a long-term bull market rather than a reversal of the broader trend.
Meanwhile, VanEck expects artificial intelligence to continue driving significant investment in energy generation and power infrastructure, as rapidly growing AI data centers require enormous amounts of electricity and continued modernization of electrical grids.
According to the firm, those structural trends are likely to remain major investment themes throughout the second half of 2026 and beyond.
