Kalshi traders are favoring a Federal Reserve pause on October 28 followed by a quarter-point increase at the December meeting. The prediction platform displayed a 93% chance of an October hold and 75% for a December hike when checked at approximately 08:11 UTC on October 27.
In the October market, keeping rates unchanged was the dominant outcome, compared with 8% for a 25-basis-point increase. A hold would leave the benchmark target range at 3.75%–4.00%, following September’s quarter-point increase.
The separate December market favored a 25-basis-point rise over no change, which stood at 24%. These are probabilities for individual meetings, rather than a single contract measuring the combined likelihood of an October pause and a December increase.
The Fed raised rates unanimously on September 16, citing elevated inflation alongside solid economic activity. As MarketSpeaker previously reported, this week’s expected pause would not necessarily mark the end of further tightening.
The Federal Open Market Committee meets October 27–28 and December 8–9, according to its official calendar. Kalshi’s displayed odds reflect market pricing at the time of the check and can change before either decision; they are not commitments from policymakers.
