Key Notes
- The 10-year Treasury yield traded near 4.88% after the jobs report, while the 30-year yield was around 5.27%.
- Employers added 165,000 jobs in October and earlier payroll gains were revised higher by a combined 84,000.
- Schwab’s 9:15 am Eastern update cited CME FedWatch December quarter-point hike odds near 73%, up from 60% during Thursday’s selloff.
U.S. Treasury yields turned higher Friday after a stronger-than-expected October jobs report reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates again in December. The benchmark 10-year yield traded near 4.88%, trimming some of the bond-market gains that had accompanied Thursday’s sharp stock selloff.
Employers added 165,000 jobs, unemployment edged down to 4.1% and earlier payroll gains were revised higher. The figures gave investors a firmer picture of the labor market after a week dominated by election results and anxiety over spending on artificial intelligence.
Traders put the chance of a December quarter-point rate increase at about 80% immediately after the report, up from roughly 75% just before the release, Reuters reported.
Schwab’s market update, published as of 9:15 a.m. Eastern (14:15 UTC), cited CME FedWatch odds near 73%, up from 60% during Thursday’s selloff.
Treasury Yields Rebound After the Jobs Release
Yahoo Finance quotes at approximately 9:39 a.m. Eastern, or 14:39 UTC, showed:
- Five-year Treasury yield: 4.666%, up about 5.8 basis points.
- 10-year Treasury yield: 4.876%, up about 3.9 basis points.
- 30-year Treasury yield: 5.272%, up about 2.1 basis points.
The moves are measured against the quote service’s previous closing readings. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. The intraday quotes describe Friday trading, rather than final closing yields.
The shorter end of the market also responded. In its update at 14:08 UTC, CNBC reported that the two-year yield had risen almost five basis points to 4.524%. That maturity is particularly sensitive to the expected path of the Fed’s policy rate.
Rising yields mean prices are falling for existing fixed-rate bonds. Investors who bought Treasuries during Thursday’s rush for safety were therefore giving back part of those price gains as stronger hiring brought inflation and monetary policy back to the foreground.
Payroll Revisions Strengthen the Labor-Market Picture
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an October payroll gain of 165,000, well above the 59,000 increase anticipated in the Dow Jones survey. Unemployment slipped from 4.2% to 4.1%.
September was stronger than the original release had suggested. Its payroll gain was revised to 60,000 from 29,000, while August’s increase rose to 186,000 from 133,000. Together, those revisions added 84,000 jobs to the prior two months’ figures.
Average hourly earnings increased 0.4% over the month to $38.00 and were 3.1% higher than a year earlier. Professional and business services added 70,000 jobs, while health care added 42,000.
Stronger hiring gives the Fed more room to keep policy restrictive while it addresses inflation. The 0.4% monthly rise in hourly pay also keeps wage pressure in focus. Neither figure dictates the December decision, but together they make an abrupt labor-market slowdown less evident in this release.
December Rate-Hike Bets Rise After October’s Pause
The Fed left its target range at 3.75%–4.00% on October 28. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack preferred another quarter-point increase, producing a 10–2 vote for the October pause.
In its statement, the committee described economic growth as strong and inflation as elevated. It said further information would help determine the policy stance needed to return inflation to its 2% goal.
The next policy meeting is scheduled for December 8–9. A quarter-point increase would take the target range to 4.00%–4.25%.
These are futures-market estimates of the December outcome. CME’s FedWatch tool calculates probabilities from federal funds futures prices, and the readings move as those contracts trade.
Yields Remain Below Early October’s Bond-Selloff Levels
Friday’s rise followed strong demand for government bonds during Thursday’s stock-market rout. The S&P 500 fell 4.36% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 5.52%, with AI-related shares leading the selling.
That demand for safety pulled yields lower, even as investors remained concerned about inflation. Friday’s employment data shifted the immediate focus back toward the economy’s capacity to keep growing and the level of interest rates needed to restrain prices.
Longer-term yields were still well below the levels reached during the early October selloff. On October 5, the 10-year yield traded at 5.347% and the 30-year at 5.702%. Friday’s quoted levels were roughly 47 and 43 basis points lower, respectively.
Those shifts matter for investors holding longer-duration bonds, whose prices tend to move more sharply when market rates change. The SEC’s Investor.gov explains that higher rates generally reduce the market value of existing fixed-rate bonds, even when their scheduled payments are unchanged.
The next major inflation release is due Tuesday, November 10. The BLS will publish October’s Consumer Price Index at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, or 13:30 UTC, providing fresh price data before the Fed’s final scheduled meeting of 2026.
