The release of Grand Theft Auto VI could temporarily cost the U.S. economy around $1 billion in lost productivity as workers and students stay home to play one of the most anticipated video games in history, according to an academic estimate circulating in the media.
The estimate originated from a report by Spanish technology publication El Output, which cited calculations by economist José García Montalvo, a professor at Pompeu Fabra University who has also held academic positions at Harvard.
According to the estimate, widespread absenteeism surrounding the game’s launch could briefly reduce U.S. labor productivity by approximately 2%, with the largest impact expected among people between the ages of 18 and 30.
GTA VI Could Trigger Mass Absenteeism
The argument is based on expectations that thousands of employees and students could take time away from work or education immediately following the game’s release.
Major entertainment launches have occasionally produced measurable changes in consumer behavior, but GTA VI is expected to arrive with an unusually large audience after years of anticipation.
Its predecessor, Grand Theft Auto V, became one of the most commercially successful entertainment products ever released, giving analysts reason to expect enormous initial demand for its sequel.
The $1 billion figure, however, should be viewed as an estimate rather than a confirmed forecast of economic losses.
Calculating the macroeconomic impact of people taking time off to play a video game requires assumptions about absenteeism, working hours, productivity and whether missed work is ultimately recovered.
GTA V Comparisons Resurface
Reports surrounding the estimate have also revived claims about workplace absenteeism when GTA V launched in 2013.
One figure circulating online suggests that 6% of young professionals in major U.S. cities took a day off around the game’s release. The original source and methodology behind that statistic, however, remain unclear.
A more identifiable data point comes from a survey conducted by gaming publication IGN ahead of GTA V’s launch.
IGN reportedly surveyed roughly 11,000 readers, with 46% saying they planned to take the game’s release day off.
That survey demonstrated the extraordinary enthusiasm surrounding GTA V, but it was conducted among IGN readers rather than a representative sample of the U.S. workforce. It therefore cannot reliably establish how many American employees actually skipped work.
A Billion-Dollar Economic Event
Regardless of whether GTA VI ultimately produces a measurable nationwide productivity decline, the discussion illustrates the extraordinary scale surrounding the game’s launch.
Major video games increasingly resemble blockbuster entertainment events, generating billions of dollars in spending while commanding enormous amounts of consumer attention.
For GTA VI, that attention could temporarily extend into workplaces and universities as players prioritize the game immediately after release.
Whether the U.S. economy actually loses $1 billion will be difficult to establish. But even speculative estimates of that magnitude demonstrate how unusually large the cultural and economic footprint of GTA VI is expected to be.
