Gold’s long-running rally regained momentum this week after Deutsche Bank raised its 2026 price forecast to $4,450 per ounce, up from its previous estimate of $4,000. The bank also projected a $3,950–$4,950 trading range for next year, putting the upper bound roughly 14% above current levels for December 2026 COMEX futures.
The upgrade reflects what analysts described as a “positive structural picture” in the market, driven by stabilizing investor flows, renewed ETF interest, and ongoing central-bank accumulation. With demand continuing to outpace available supply, the bank said the backdrop supports higher long-term prices even as short-term volatility persists.
Drivers Behind the Upgraded Outlook
Deutsche Bank pointed to several factors influencing its revised view, starting with the resilience of central-bank buying, which remains one of the strongest pillars of the gold market. The accumulation trend, prominent since 2022, has persisted into 2025 as countries diversify reserves away from the U.S. dollar and increase strategic holdings.
ETF inflows have also begun to stabilize following a period of outflows earlier in the year. The bank noted that both central banks and ETF investors are now absorbing a meaningful portion of global supply, leaving less physical metal available for the jewelry segment, traditionally one of the largest demand sources.
Analysts emphasized that this shift underscores a deeper, structural change in gold’s role in global portfolios. Rather than being driven primarily by sentiment, demand increasingly reflects policy dynamics, reserve management decisions, and long-term diversification strategies.
This structural tightening is occurring against a backdrop of persistent macro uncertainty, including shifting expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and ongoing concerns around global fiscal sustainability. Together, these factors continue to support gold’s attractiveness as a long-duration hedge.
Market Implications and What Investors Should Watch
With gold trading near historic highs, Deutsche Bank’s forecast reinforces expectations that tight supply and strong macro demand could keep prices elevated into 2026. However, analysts noted that next year’s projected $3,950–$4,950 range still implies significant volatility, particularly as markets recalibrate around future interest-rate decisions.
Investor reaction is expected to center on three key variables:
- the pace of Federal Reserve easing in 2026,
- the durability of central-bank purchases, and
- whether ETF flows accelerate or remain stable.
Any slowdown in central-bank buying could pressure prices, but Deutsche Bank argued that long-term commitments from emerging-market reserve authorities make that scenario unlikely in the near term.
For investors, the bank’s outlook supports the case for maintaining or increasing exposure to gold as part of a diversified portfolio – especially amid ongoing fiscal and geopolitical risks that may continue to challenge traditional assets.
