Citigroup’s analysts estimate that Ether’s price will end the year around $4,300 in their base case forecast. They also outline a bullish scenario where Ether could rise to $6,400 and a bearish scenario where it falls to about $2,200.
The bank cautions that much of Ether’s recent strength may reflect investor enthusiasm rather than underlying usage metrics. A large share of growth has come from Layer-2 blockchains built atop Ethereum, but Citigroup assumes only about 30 percent of that activity passes through to the main Ethereum base layer.
Key Drivers of the Forecast
Network activity remains a crucial factor in Citi’s model. The bank points to increasing demand from applications like stablecoins and tokenization, which can drive usage fees and staking revenue. However, they believe that Ether’s current price exceeds what the base-layer activity would justify.
ETF flows are also part of the equation. While flows into Ether-based ETFs have been less than those into Bitcoin, Citi notes that they have an outsized impact per dollar on price moves. But such inflows are expected to remain relatively modest given Ether’s lower visibility with new investors and smaller market cap.
Risks and Scenarios to Watch
In a bullish scenario, further gains could come from stronger adoption, increasing transaction fees, and more robust usage of tokenization and stablecoin activity. Conversely, the bear case depends on macroeconomic headwinds, weakening equity markets, and slower-than-expected growth in Ethereum’s core activity levels.
Another risk is that the price could face correction if technical support levels fail. Investors will be watching metrics like base-layer transaction volume, staking yields, and fees. If market sentiment cools, those stronger supports may come into focus.
