The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.57% to 102.26 on November 10 after hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation strengthened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate increase in December, Reuters reported. In that late-session snapshot, the euro fell 0.55% to $1.116 and the dollar gained 0.55% against the yen.
October consumer prices rose 0.4% over the month, above the 0.3% consensus forecast cited by Reuters. The official release showed core prices, excluding food and energy, increasing 0.3% for a third consecutive month, as detailed in our CPI breakdown.
A CME FedWatch snapshot reviewed at 21:55 UTC on November 10 showed a 100% implied probability of a rate increase at the December 9 decision. Its previous-day comparison showed a 16% chance of no change, equivalent to an 84% probability of a hike.
The snapshot assigned 88.5% to a quarter-percentage-point increase and 11.5% to a half-point move. CME’s methodology derives these estimates from federal funds futures prices. They are market-implied probabilities that can change during trading, rather than a commitment from policymakers.
The Fed’s next meeting runs December 8–9. The current target range is 3.75%–4%, so a quarter-point increase would lift it to 4%–4.25%. Our coverage of larger hikes explains why persistent core inflation has also brought a half-point move into the debate.
