Key Notes
- Ian Buck led Polymarket’s Nvidia CEO market near 36.5% in a November 12 snapshot.
- Colette Kress and Rene Haas followed, while Nvidia’s board searches internally and externally.
- The contract excludes interim CEOs and its No Change option means no qualifying successor is announced by the end of 2028.
Ian Buck, vice president of hyperscale and high-performance computing at Nvidia (Nasdaq: NVDA), leads Polymarket’s betting on the chipmaker’s next permanent CEO after Jensen Huang’s departure.
A snapshot of the succession market retrieved at 17:34 UTC on November 12 put Buck at about 36.5%, followed by Colette Kress at 20.6% and Rene Haas at 11.2%. Those prices reflect trading in the contract, rather than a shortlist disclosed by Nvidia.
The board has appointed Kress interim CEO and begun a search covering internal and external candidates. She will retain her CFO responsibilities while that process runs.
*NVIDIA’S JENSEN HUANG OUT AS CEO
– *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) November 12, 2026
Buck’s CUDA Roots and Cloud Relationships
Buck joined Nvidia in 2004 after completing a computer-science PhD at Stanford, where he led development of Brook, an early effort to use graphics processors for general-purpose computing. His work helped establish CUDA, the software platform that made Nvidia GPUs useful far beyond graphics.
Nvidia’s biography describes him as the inventor of CUDA and the product leader for its hyperscale AI hardware and software. His responsibilities put him in regular contact with the large cloud providers and AI developers buying Nvidia systems.
That combination of technical history and customer exposure distinguishes his résumé from those of the finance and commercial executives also attracting bets. It does not establish whether the board has approached him.
Kress and Haas Bring Different Experience
Kress has been Nvidia’s CFO since September 2013. Her finance career includes senior roles at Microsoft and Cisco, followed by more than a decade managing Nvidia’s finances through its AI expansion.
Her interim appointment gives her immediate responsibility for the business, but it does not qualify as a winning appointment under this market’s rules. Naming her permanent CEO would be a separate board decision.
Haas has led Arm (Nasdaq: ARM) since February 2022. Before joining the chip designer in 2013, he spent seven years at Nvidia, including as vice president and general manager of its computing-products business. He offers a different profile: a sitting semiconductor CEO with previous experience inside Nvidia.
Other Names Attracting Bets
- Tim Cook – about 4.5%. Apple’s executive chairman received a public endorsement from Trump on Thursday. Cook handed the CEO role at Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) to John Ternus in September.
- Jay Puri – about 3.3%. His career includes leading Nvidia’s worldwide field operations. Nvidia’s biography says he joined in 2005 after 22 years at Sun Microsystems in sales, marketing and general management.
- Michael Kagan – about 2.8%. Nvidia’s chief technology officer since May 2020 co-founded Mellanox and joined Nvidia through its acquisition of the networking company.
- Lisa Su – about 2.6%. The chair and CEO of AMD (Nasdaq: AMD) leads one of Nvidia’s major competitors in AI computing. Her name’s appearance in the market is not evidence of a proposed move.
What the Contract Actually Measures
The contract resolves on the first person officially announced as Huang’s successor by December 31, 2028, at 11:59 p.m. Eastern. An announcement is sufficient even if that person never actually takes the job. Interim CEOs are excluded.
The option labeled “Jensen Huang (No Change),” priced near 4.5% in the same snapshot, is a fallback: it wins if no qualifying successor is announced by the deadline. It should not be read simply as the probability that Huang keeps or regains the CEO position.
Nvidia’s announced process leaves the choice with its board. The company has kept its fiscal third-quarter 2027 results and conference call on November 17, its next scheduled financial update during the leadership transition.
