A growing theme in U.S. markets is the fear of an unexpected shock from artificial intelligence a sudden breakthrough that could undermine established software businesses almost overnight. Investors are increasingly selling shares of software makers amid concerns that new AI-native competitors could render long-standing products obsolete.
The selloff has intensified even in cases where earnings remain relatively stable, suggesting the pressure is driven less by fundamentals and more by forward-looking disruption risk.
Recent volatility was highlighted by a sharp decline in shares of IBM, which fell heavily in the latest session, adding to mounting anxiety across the sector.
Why investors are dumping software stocks
Since the start of 2026, several major U.S. software companies have seen steep declines. Snowflake is down about 28%, Intuit has dropped roughly 46%, Salesforce is off 33%, Autodesk has fallen 26%, and Workday is down around 40%.
Bloomberg reports that investors continue to unload software stocks regardless of earnings updates, underscoring the depth of skepticism surrounding the sector.
Market participants increasingly worry that an AI startup could launch a new product capable of rapidly displacing legacy platforms that took years and millions of dollars to develop. With generative AI tools evolving quickly, barriers to entry in certain software categories appear lower than before.
As previously covered, the AI boom has shifted investor focus toward infrastructure providers and chipmakers, while application-layer software firms face questions about defensibility and pricing power.
Warnings of structural risk
The concerns are not limited to traders. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of The Black Swan, has warned that parts of the software sector could face bankruptcy risk if AI dramatically alters competitive dynamics. Taleb argues that rapid technological shifts can create nonlinear outcomes, catching even established companies off guard.
Analysts say the core issue is unpredictability. In the past, software cycles unfolded gradually, allowing incumbents time to adapt. Today, with AI development accelerating globally, disruption can emerge from virtually anywhere – across geographies, industries, and business models.
This perceived fragility has led investors to reassess valuations that once reflected high recurring revenue and strong customer lock-in. Even profitable firms are being repriced as markets factor in potential long-term erosion.
For now, the software sector remains under pressure as investors grapple with a new paradigm: in the age of AI, competitive threats can materialize faster and with greater force than ever before. Whether these fears prove justified or excessive will depend on how quickly incumbents adapt and whether the next breakthrough truly reshapes the landscape.