NYSE Owner to Invest $2 Billion in Polymarket, Valuing Platform Near $8B

ICE, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, is in advanced talks to invest $2 billion in prediction market operator Polymarket, in a move that could validate its U.S. return strategy.

Oleg Petrenko By Oleg Petrenko Updated 3 mins read
NYSE Owner to Invest $2 Billion in Polymarket, Valuing Platform Near $8B
The New York Stock Exchange building in New York City. ICE, its parent company, has invested in Polymarket, marking a strategic move into crypto prediction markets and decentralized finance. Photo: Keenan Constance / Pexels

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, is nearing a deal to make a $2 billion investment in Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market platform. The transaction could value Polymarket between $8 billion and $10 billion and is expected to be finalized soon.

The proposed investment comes as Polymarket positions itself for a return to the U.S. market after years of regulatory constraints. News of the talks lifted ICE’s shares, reflecting investor optimism about its digital finance ambitions.

Deal Mechanics and Strategic Rationale

Under the emerging agreement, ICE would provide capital in cash, acquiring a sizable stake in Polymarket that reflects confidence in the platform’s growth trajectory. The valuation range of $8 billion to $10 billion underscores ICE’s aggressive bet on prediction markets.

Polymarket, founded in 2020, allows users to wager on yes/no questions across areas like politics, sports, and pop culture. The company drew wide attention in 2024 for its election-related markets, which handled more than $2 billion in trading volume and accurately predicted Donald Trump’s victory.

The firm has faced regulatory hurdles. In 2022, it settled with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission for operating an unregistered derivatives platform, which temporarily suspended access for U.S. users.

More recently, Polymarket has worked to restore compliance, acquiring a licensed exchange and clearinghouse and expanding its advisory board. The company also received backing from new investors, including prominent political and venture figures.

ICE’s involvement could extend beyond capital. The exchange operator is expected to help distribute Polymarket’s “event data” — turning real-time market sentiment into analytics for institutional clients and further integrating decentralized finance with traditional markets.

Market Impact, Risks, and Outlook

The pending deal marks one of the most significant institutional moves into prediction markets, a sector that has long hovered at the intersection of finance, technology, and speculation. For ICE, the investment diversifies its portfolio and offers exposure to one of digital finance’s fastest-emerging niches.

Investors welcomed the development, sending ICE shares up roughly 4 % in premarket trading following reports of the negotiations. Analysts noted that the transaction could cement ICE’s leadership in bridging regulated exchanges and blockchain-based financial products.

Still, the path forward carries regulatory and operational risks. Polymarket’s valuation upside depends on execution, user growth, and successfully regaining U.S. market access. A renewed regulatory clampdown could limit its expansion.

The deal also raises competitive pressure on gaming and sportsbook operators as prediction markets move closer to mainstream finance.

As previously covered, digital-asset innovation now depends as much on regulatory coordination as on technology. If ICE and Polymarket deliver on their plan, the deal could mark a turning point in legitimizing prediction markets as a new financial asset class.